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Quick Thoroughbred Handicapping System Copyright (c) 1990 by Software Exchange Contents Part 1. Introduction Part 2 Copyright Notice and Registration Part 3. Instructions Part 4. Helpful Handicapping Hints Part 5. The Test Part 1 INTRODUCTION Handicapping thoroughbred horse racing is one good application for your personal computer. And using our Quick Thoroughbred Handicapping System is a quick and inexpensive way to let your computer analyze past performance information to help pick the winning horses at the track. Although the system is simple, using only five inputs for each horse evaluated, you may be surprised at the results. In fact, in our test of the system, as described in Part 5 of the documentation, it did very well, picking winners "in-the-money" in all nine races at a day at Aqueduct in New York. And if you would have bet the way we did: $10 each on the top two computer picks to "win," you would have been ahead $90 for the day. Part 2 COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND REGISTRATION Quick Thoroughbred Handicapping System IBM PC, PCjr., XT, AT, PS/2, Tandy 1000, and Compatibles TM Copyright (c) 1990 by Software Exchange COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND REGISTRATION This product is copyrighted and all rights are reserved. The distribution and sale of this product, including software and documentation, is intended for the use of the original purchaser only. Four backup copies may be made, but thereafter, copying, duplicating, selling or otherwise distributing this product is hereby expressly forbidden. A registration fee of $5.00 is required for using this product. Please send $5.00, in the form of a check or money order, to: Software Exchange 2681 Peterboro Rd. W. Bloomfield, MI 48323. If you would like to obtain our commercial version: the Enhanced Racing Analysis Package, which analyzes 13 data inputs, then send in $35 plus $3 for shipping and handling ($49.95 retail value). Or you may purchase our best thoroughbred system, the Advanced Thoroughbred Racing System, for $50 plus $3 for shipping and handling ($64.95 retail value). See our catalog, file CATALOG.TXT, for the descriptions. TELEPHONE SUPPORT We offer free telephone support to registered users of our software products. The only requirement is that you call our information line at (313) 626-7208. Our hours are Monday through Friday from 10 A.M. to 6 P.M. Please do not call our toll-free 800 line. This phone is reserved for orders only. WARRANTY Software Exchange shall have no liability or responsibility to the user, purchaser, or any other person or entity with respect to loss or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly by this product, including but not limited to any interruption of service, loss of business and anticipatory profits or consequential damages resulting from the use or operation of this product. The product is warranted for ninety (90) days from the date of original purchase, against any defects in manufacturing only. If defects occur within that period, you may purchase a replacement disk for $5.00. Send in a check or money order, with an explanation of problem, to Software Exchange, 2681 Peterboro Rd., W. Bloomfield, MI 48323. Part 3 INSTRUCTIONS DISK LOADING INSTRUCTIONS The program requires at least 256K RAM and either a monochrome or a color graphics adaptor (CGA, EGA, VGA). First, power up your system with PC-DOS or MS-DOS disk in drive A. Or, if you have a hard disk, just power up your system without a disk in drive A. After DOS loads, insert the program disk into drive A and type A:QTHOR and press ENTER (or RETURN) to load and run the program. Hard disk owners may transfer the program to their hard disk, from the DOS prompt, type COPY A:QTHOR.EXE and then press ENTER (or RETURN). QUICK THOROUGHBRED HANDICAPPING SYSTEM Enter the number of entries in the race (limited to 20 maximum). The program then begins accepting data, as taken from the racing form (the form may be purchased at the track), by displaying HORSE NO. 1. Enter the last position in the stretch. Then it requests entry of the last two finishes. Enter the last finish (1st finish), and then enter the second from the last finish (2nd finish). If any of the data are missing then enter a zero for that stretch or finish. Next, enter the last speed rating (this is a number with an approximate range of 5 to 100). And finally, enter today's post position. The computer will then advance to the next entry. After all the data for all the horses in the race are entered, the computer will calculate and display the number rating for each entry sorted from best to worst. The entry number with the highest rating will be displayed first. After displaying all the entries, the computer will allow you to display the entries again, run the thoroughbred analysis again, or end the program. Choose the entries from the four highest rating numbers generated. They will be your best bet. NOTE 1 This program is designed as a guide to aid the racing enthusiast. We make no guarantee to its accuracy, and assume no responsibility for losses incurred with its use. Though the program is designed with some degree of accuracy, there are many factors which can affect the outcome of a race that cannot be accounted for. The program is designed for entertainment purposes only. TM SOFTWARE EXCHANGE IBM, PS/2, Software Exchange, and Tandy 1000 are registered trademarks. Part 4 HELPFUL HANDICAPPING HINTS 1. Our systems should be most useful when betting straight win, place, or show bets. Some people find it effective betting the top two, or the 2nd and third top computer picks to "place." Others bet the top two, or the 2nd and third top picks to "win," while a few people only bet the top computer picks to "show." 2. Be selective. Eliminate maiden races and races made up of non-winners. They are not predictable. And do not use "workout" data. It is unreliable. 3. Our systems seem to predict more accurately when handicapping in higher purse races, say over $4000 or $5000. Betting on races that are less than $4000 may give less accurate results. Try handicapping the lower purse races to see what type of results you get. In some cases, the top computer pick may not be "in-the-money." You may eliminate the top pick and use the 2nd and third for betting. 4. The next most popular bet is the perfecta, exacta, or quinella. But this is an exotic bet that hits less frequently. Some people box the top three or four computer picks for the perfecta, exacta, or quinella. The trifecta is much more difficult, and not recommended. 5. Although our systems only cover the factors that we think are important for best predictions, it is possible to add some of your own factors to the analysis. The program cannot be changed to add new factors, but you can add more or less points to one or two existing factors that will adjust the ratings to represent the factors that you wish to add. For example, some people feel that the jockey is an important factor, and should be used in an analysis. You may use the last speed rating to adjust for the jockey. For the best jockey add 10 or 20 points to the last speed rating, for the worst jockey subtract 10 or 20 points. 6. And finally, before you bet, check the system to see how it is doing at your track. You may find certain races or even certain days that it picks better than others. Or, if it doesn't seem to do well, try another track or wait a few weeks and try again at the same track. Part 5 THE TEST Now for the test. Or the moment of truth, you might say. It is always a good idea to test a system before using it, so I spent a fun afternoon testing the Quick Thoroughbred Handicapping System on a day at Aqueduct, in New York. I was pleased to find that this simple system did very well, right up there with the track handicappers. Now for the Test For the test, I wanted to fly east to New York to be "where the action is:" right next to the fence to watch my bank roll increase or decrease as the nags fly by kicking mud in my face. Unfortunately, I had another engagement, so I drove to a local party store on Sunday afternoon, and picked up the Daily Racing Form for Aqueduct, Monday, January 15th. Since we don't have off-track betting here in Detroit, and our local track, Detroit Race Course, was not running, I had to work with an imaginary bank roll. With $100 to spend on Monday's nine-race program, I went to work. My plan was to bet the first two computer picks to "win." Normally, though, I would not always bet every race. With some experience behind me, I knew that it was not wise to bet maiden races, or races made up of non-winners. So, for the test, I wagered as I would have if I were betting at the track. In this case, I only eliminated three races: two maiden claiming races, the fourth and the ninth, and a maiden special weight, the sixth race. I was on my way, confident that the Quick Thoroughbred Handicapping System, at the very least, allow me to break even. I had some doubts about how well I would do, because the system only covered five factors. But I knew that the few I chose: last position in the stretch, the last two finishes, speed rating, and post position, should have been enough for a fair prediction. At the Races Well, Monday, January 15th was my lucky day. Overall, the computerized system did well. In the first race, a 1 1/16 miles claiming with a purse of 18,000, the computer picked: Odds Gaelic Fog rating 52.07 6/1 Pine Island Pat rating 43.83 8/1 Saratoga Colony rating 41.27 10/1 Jupiter Inlet rating 35.67 4/1 Sylson rating 34.90 9/5 The actual results were: Pine Island Pat 27.40 14.70 7.20 Spring Close 21.20 10.80 Saratoga Colony 8.20 $2.00 exacta paid $706.80 With my imaginary bank roll, I spent $20: $10 to "win" on both Gaelic Fog and Pine Island Pat. I lost on Gaelic Fog but won $127 on Pine Island Pat ($137 minus $10). Not a bad start. After the first race, my bank roll went from $100 to $217. Now I really wished I had been at the track. The second race was a 6 furlongs claiming, with a purse of $20,000. I bet $10 each to win on Oil Patch Kid and Devilish Grin. Here's how the computer picked: Odds Oil Patch Kid rating 42.80 5/1 Devilish Grin rating 40.43 7/1 Jazz City rating 40.07 5/2 Supa Luca rating 34.66 8/1 Talwatchee rating 31.87 6/1 The actual results were: Talwatchee 10.00 6.00 4.20 Oil Patch Kid 9.20 5.20 Bold I.B. 6.20 $2.00 exacta $73.80 Well, the computer did it again, but I didn't win. It picked the "place" horse, Oil Patch Kid, paying $9.20. But I bet to win. The computer had the winner, Talwatchee, in fifth place out of 19 horses in the race (the 20th horse, Arctic Energy was scratched). Fortunately, I was still ahead by $97, with my bank roll at $197. The third race was probably the best the system picked. It was a 6 furlongs claiming race, with a purse of $31,000. The computer was incredible, picking the "win," "place," and "show" horses in its top three picks. And here are the picks: Odds Winter Drive rating 64.87 7/5 T.V. Wizard rating 45.17 8/1 Crafty Riden rating 38.47 3/1 Irish Chili rating 33.72 0/1 Craftmaster rating 31.93 4/1 The actual results were: Winter Drive 4.60 2.60 2.40 Crafty Riden 3.20 2.40 T.V. Wizard 2.80 $2.00 exacta $12.80 I bet $10 to "win" on both Winter Drive and T.V. Wizard, and I was happy to see that Winter Drive won. But I was only ahead $3.00 because my payoff was $23 but my bets cost $20. I was still ahead, though, with my bank roll at $200. And the computer did well picking the "place" horse in third and the "show" horse second. The fourth race was a maiden, so I skipped it. Although I was curious, and handicapped it anyway. Comedy Routine came in third, as the computer correctly predicted, paying $4.20 to "show." The computer did okay in the fifth race, a 1 1/8 miles allowance, with a purse of $32,000. It picked the winner in the first spot, paying $4.80 for a $2.00 "win" bet. Here are the picks: Odds Nancy's Place rating 76.47 5/2 Dynamical rating 60.13 8/1 Now Dancer rating 44.37 6/1 Is a Secret rating 42.27 3/1 Dakkari rating 42.00 8/1 The actual results were: Nancy's Place 4.80 4.20 3.00 Dakkari 10.20 5.60 Is a Secret 2.60 $2.00 exacta paid $51.20 With a return of $24 for my $10 "win" bet on Nancy's Place, but losing $10 on Dynamical, I was ahead $4.00 in this race. My bank roll increased from $200 to $204. I was gaining, but slowly, still ahead by $104. Race six was the second maiden race that I skipped, but I was curious, and handicapped it also. The horse, Appropriately, came in second, paying $5.00 to "place" and $3.20 to "show." The computer put Appropriately in third. Race seven was a 1 mile 70 yards allowance race, with a purse of $34.000. I bet $10 to "win" on both Mr. Vesuvio and Sea Hunter. The computer did well, picking the winner in the second position. My return on Sea Hunter was $26. So, my bank roll increased from $204 to $210. I was creeping ahead. Here are the computer picks: Odds Mr. Vesuvio rating 58.47 3/1 Sea Hunter rating 57.93 8/5 Match the Mouse rating 40.27 4/1 Preferred Lie rating 38.93 8/1 Gelestrino rating 24.38 8/1 The actual results were: Sea Hunter 5.20 3.40 3.00 Preferred Lie 4.60 3.80 Nessuno 8.00 $2.00 exacta paid $20.00 The eighth race was a 1 1/16 miles allowance, with a purse of $40,000. The computer picked the second place horse in second place and the winner in third. Here are the picks: Odds Suisitna rating 46.77 6/1 A Wink and a Nod rating 43.20 6/1 Rose Park rating 36.62 5/2 Aljadam rating 35.03 3/1 Fariedah rating 28.20 6/1 The actual results were: Rose Park 5.00 2.60 2.10 A Wink and a Nod 3.60 2.60 Aljadam 2.20 $2.00 exacta paid $23.40 As you can see, Rose Park came in first, but the computer had it in the third position, so I lost my $10 bets on Suisitna and A Wink and a Nod. My bank roll decreased from $210 to $190. But I was still ahead for the day. Race nine, the last race, was a maiden claiming, so I had to pass it. But I was curious again, so I handicapped it anyway. And the computer did okay, picking the actual "place" horse, Dan's Prospect, as the first horse on its list. It also picked the "show" horse, Fire On the Water, as its third pick. Final Tally After betting on the first two computer picks to "win," in each of the six acceptable races, I ended up with $190, starting with $100 to invest. I had an imaginary win of $90 for the day, which works out to be a 90 percent gain. I'd say that's pretty good for a simple handicapping system. Now, for this test, I didn't consider the admission fee and the cost for the "Daily Racing Form," or any food and drinks I would have purchased. But those are the fixed costs, whether you win or lose. Experts Comparison How did the Quick Thoroughbred Handicapping System do against the experts' selections listed in the "Daily Racing Form?" I was hoping you would asked. Actually, it did very well in comparison. In the first race, the computer did better than any of the experts listed in the racing form. No one expert picked Pine Island Pat. The computer picked it in second place. In the second race, the computer and the experts agreed that Oil Patch Kid would be "in-the-money." In this race, the experts did better than the computer, picking Talwatchee and Bold I.B. Now, to the third race. The computer picked Winter Drive to "win" along with the experts. And the experts and the computer agreed on Crafty Riden coming in third (although it finished second). But none of the experts picked T.V. Wizard. Although the computer had it in second place, it finished third. I didn't bet on the fourth race, a maiden, but I wanted to mention it. The experts and the computer were in agreement on Peter Pine to "win," Brucon to" place," and Comedy Routine to "show." But Ackies Riddle came in first, Olympic Image was second, and Comedy Routine was third. Here, it was wise not to bet, because the computer only picked the "show" horse, along with the experts. In the fifth race, the computer picked Nancy's Place to "win" along with the experts. In fact, the computer was in agreement with the experts' second and third place picks. In the sixth race, (a maiden, which I didn't bet) the experts picked Appropriately to "win" and Redevette to "place," while the computer picked Appropriately to "show" and Redevette to "place." And Appropriately did come in second. So, the computer, the experts, and the results were almost in agreement. Now, to the seventh race. Here, the computer picked Sea Hunter to "place" and Match the Mouse to "show." The experts picked Sea Hunter to "win," Match the Mouse to "place," and Nessuno to "show." Sea Hunter won, Preferred Lie came in second, and Nessuno came in third. It looks like the experts did quite well, at least picking the "win" and "show" horses. But the computer was close behind. In the eighth race, the experts picked Rose Park to "win," Aljadam to "place," and Gottagetitdone to "show." The computer liked Gottagetitdone, and picked it to "win." But since the horse was scratched, the picks changed. The computer had A Wink and a Nod second, and Rose Park third. Rose Park won, A Wink and a Nod was second, and Aljadam was third. The experts did well again, but so did the computer. And finally, the computer did well in the ninth race, even though it was a maiden. It picked Dan's Prospect to "win" and Fire On the Water to "show." The experts picked Color Me True to win, Dan's Prospect to "place," and Fire On the Water to "show." Dan's Prospect did come in second and Fire On the Water was third. But no one picked Flash Cavet, a long shot, paying $56.60 to "win." Proven Track Record Overall, the computer held it's own against the experts. And it did very well. It was "in-the-money" in all nine races, including the maidens. And if you bet to "win," as I did, you would have made money. But, if this simple thoroughbred handicapping system worked well using only five factors, then a more complex system should work even better.